The Art of the Long View

Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World

Author: Peter Schwartz

Publisher: Crown Business

ISBN: 0307816117

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 2829

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What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life—bottom-line numbers, for instance—but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories—scenarios—and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.

The Art of the Long View

Paths to Strategic Insight for Yourself and Your Company

Author: Peter Schwartz

Publisher: Crown Business

ISBN: 0385267320

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 272

View: 7034

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Tells how to plan a company's future using creativity by awakening the "seer" within, and contends that beliefs, hopes, and fears influence corporate performance as much as numbers and facts

The Art of the Long View

Paths to Strategic Insight for Yourself and Your Company

Author: Peter Schwartz

Publisher: Crown Pub

ISBN: 0385267320

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 272

View: 7375

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Tells how to plan a company's future using creativity by awakening the "seer" within, and contends that beliefs, hopes, and fears influence corporate performance as much as numbers and facts

The Long View

Career Strategies to Start Strong, Reach High, and Go Far

Author: Brian Fetherstonhaugh

Publisher: Diversion Books

ISBN: 168230292X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 248

View: 1900

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The Chairman & CEO of OgilvyOne Worldwide and career advisor extraordinaire, Brian Fetherstonhaugh, outlines the three stages of a long, successful work life and offers guidance to plan ahead and get the most out of each phase. The world of careers is vastly different than it was just five years ago—more choices, more competition, and relentless change in how we define work-life. It can be difficult to understand our options and plan for a prosperous future. Where can you go for answers? Colleges may teach us academic and technical skills, and there are places to look for tips on how to write a resume or prep for a job interview. But is it enough? Brian Fetherstonhaugh, CEO of OgilvyOne Worldwide, understands this dilemma and how to navigate it. He believes we need more than tactics—we need robust, road-tested strategies that combine old-school wisdom with new-school context so that we can flourish in the new professional reality. In The Long View, Fetherstonhaugh shows us the three distinct but interconnected stages of a career, and how we build ‘fuel’ at every step along the way to create long-term success. The Long View teaches us new ways of finding jobs, new methods to build careers that last, and a new definition of “work” that embraces life-satisfaction and happiness. The Long View offers highly practical exercises that challenge you to rethink how to assess your skills, invest your time and expand your personal network, and provides a framework for facing tough job decisions. With insights drawn from interviews with a variety of professionals—who share both success stories and cautionary tales—The Long View will help you establish your own path for overcoming obstacles and making the best choices for a long, accomplished, and rewarding career. “THE LONG VIEW is one of the most practical and comprehensive guides to a meaningful career that I have read. Whether you are just starting your search for a job or trying to get a career back on track, start by reading The Long View.”—Tom Rath, best-selling author of ARE YOU FULLY CHARGED?, EAT, MOVE, SLEEP, and STRENGTHSFINDER 2.0 “THE LONG VIEW is the career guide you’ve been looking for—forward-thinking advice from a seasoned business leader. Brian Fetherstonhaugh offers practical exercises, useful advice—and deep insights into what a meaningful career looks and feels like.”—Susan Cain, co-founder of Quiet Revolution and New York Times bestselling author of QUIET: The Power of Introverts in a World That Can’t Stop Talking

Scenario Planning

A Field Guide to the Future

Author: Woody Wade

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118170156

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 190

View: 1388

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Is your business ready for the future? Scenario planning is a fascinating, yet still underutilized, business tool that can be of immense value to a company's strategic planning process. It allows companies to visualize the impact that a portfolio of possible futures could have on their competitiveness. It helps decision-makers see opportunities and threats that could emerge beyond their normal planning horizon. Scenario Planning serves as a guide to taking a long-term look at your business, your industry, and the world, posing thoughtful questions about the possible consequences of some current (and possible future) trends. This book will help you: Outline (and help you prepare for) any trends that could play out in the future that could change the political, social, and economic landscapes and significantly impact your business Explore the impact of technological advances and the emergence of new competitors to your business Examine challenges that are only dimly recognizable as potential problems today This visual book will help you answer this question: Is my organization ready for every possibility?

Inevitable Surprises

Author: Peter Schwartz

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 1101216557

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 272

View: 1790

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The world we live in today is more volatile than ever. The security of free nations is threatened by rogue states, the global economy is in flux, and the rapid advance of technology forces constant reevaluation of our society. With so many powerful forces at work and seemingly unpredictable events occurring, to many the future seems dark, and its possibilities frightening. Peter Schwartz disagrees. A world-renowned visionary in the field of scenario planning, Schwartz’s startling—and accurate— predictions have been employed by government agencies and major corporations for more than twenty-five years. He argues that the future is foreseeable, and that by examining the dynamics at work today we can predict the “inevitable surprises” of tomorrow. Timely and thought-provoking, Inevitable Surprises is a book that no one with an interest in business—or the future of our society—can afford to miss.

Scenarios

The Art of Strategic Conversation

Author: Kees van der Heijden

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119995523

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 380

View: 3703

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Scenario planning allows companies to move away from linear thinking and better understand external change. Eight years (and 30,000 copies) after publication Scenarios is still acknowledged as the definitive work in the field. Now, Kees van der Heijden brings his bestseller up to date, following up on his original case studies and adding significant new material. The Second Edition changes focus slightly by providing more in-depth analysis and application of the concept of the 'strategic conversation'. While maintaining the underlying rigour of the first edition, van der Heijden revisits the text to make it far more practical and accessible, and in doing so gives you the tools you need to set out and negotiate a successful future course for your organization in the face of significant uncertainty.

The Long Boom

A Vision for the Coming Age of Prosperity

Author: Peter Schwartz,Peter Leyden,Joel Hyatt

Publisher: Basic Books (AZ)

ISBN: 9780738203645

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 352

View: 5652

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A comprehensive look at the current state of the economic world discusses how that world will change in the future, as we stand on the brink of the greatest global economic expansion the world has ever seen. Reprint. 20,000 first printing.

Learning from the Future

Competitive Foresight Scenarios

Author: Liam Fahey

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780471303527

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 446

View: 3868

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"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager′s toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today′s leading practitioners in the field." –Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario–based planning as comprehensively as this one." –David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning–the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." –David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." –Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind–stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." –George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Creating Better Futures

Scenario Planning as a Tool for a Better Tomorrow

Author: James A. Ogilvy

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 019976087X

Category: Political Science

Page: 256

View: 7069

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As a founder and managing director of Global Business Network, James Ogilvy helped develop the technique of scenario planning, which has become an integral part of strategic thinking in both business and government. Now Ogilvy shows how we can use this cutting-edge method for social change in our own neighborhoods. In Creating Better Futures, Ogilvy presents a profound new vision of how the world is changing--and how it can be changed for the better. Ogilvy argues that self-defined communities, rather than individuals or governments, have become the primary agents for social change. Towns, professional associations, and interest groups of all kinds help shape the future in all the ways that matter most, from schools and hospitals to urban development. The key to improvement is scenario planning--a process that draws on groups of people, both lay and expert, to draft narratives that spell out possible futures, some to avoid, some inspiring hope. Scenario planning has revolutionized both public and private planning, leading to everything from the diverse product lines that have revived the auto industry, to a timely decision by the state of Colorado to avoid pouring millions into an oil-shale industry that never materialized. But never before has anyone proposed that it be taken up by society as a whole. Drawing on years of experience in both academia and the private sector, where he developed both a keen sense of how businesses work best and an abiding passion for changing the world, James Ogilvy provides the tools we need to create better communities: better health, better education, better lives.

Scenario Planning

Managing for the Future

Author: Gill Ringland

Publisher: John Wiley & Son Limited

ISBN: 9780471977902

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 407

View: 6478

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Scenario Planning Managing for the Future Gill Ringland "Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must-read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice." Arie De Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of The Living Company "Never since the great geographical expansions of the eighteenth century has so much latent potential been met with tools so ill-fitted to harness it. Information technology will change how, where, when we work. Scenario Planning offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to this and other forms of complexity; offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change." Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum Business today operates in a world of major change. Economies, commerce and lifestyles are constantly shifting but it is the information revolution which will prove the most radical since its agricultural and industrial counterparts. It cannot be constrained by borders but is simultaneously reaching across the world. In this environment, the techniques for planning business over the past decades are no longer sufficient. Forecasts based on current trends, or estimates of growth based on history are in danger of becoming obsolete all too quickly. The idea in the early days of mainframe computers that 'every major country will need one' demonstrates how uncertain the future can really be. The scenario planning techniques described in this book will enable anyone to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Key features are: * detailed 'how to' look for early indicators of directions, and identify possible courses of action for those new to scenarios. * extensive case studies, including ICL, British Airways and United Distillers. * includes 'do' as well as 'do not' examples to aid practitioners; tells you what works when and why. * takes a conceptual, rather than a mathematical approach. The overall message of this book is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but they are powerful weapons in managing the uncertainties of the future. Jacket illustration by Nick Orsborne

Transformative Scenario Planning

Working Together to Change the Future

Author: Adam Kahane,Kees Van Der Heijden

Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers

ISBN: 1609944909

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 126

View: 3696

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Getting Unstuck People who are trying to solve tough economic, social, and environmental problems often find themselves frustratingly stuck. They can’t solve their problems in their current context, which is too unstable or unfair or unsustainable. They can’t transform this context on their own—it’s too complex to be grasped or shifted by any one person or organization or sector. And the people whose cooperation they need don’t understand or agree with or trust them or each other. Transformative scenario planning is a powerful new methodology for dealing with these challenges. It enables us to transform ourselves and our relationships and thereby the systems of which we are a part. At a time when divisions within and among societies are producing so many people to get stuck and to suffer, it offers hope—and a proven approach—for moving forward together.

The Clock Of The Long Now

Time and Responsibility

Author: Stewart Brand

Publisher: Basic Books

ISBN: 9780786722921

Category: Philosophy

Page: 208

View: 5718

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Using the designing and building of the Clock of the Long Now as a framework, this is a book about the practical use of long time perspective: how to get it, how to use it, how to keep it in and out of sight. Here are the central questions it inspires: How do we make long-term thinking automatic and common instead of difficult and rare? Discipline in thought allows freedom. One needs the space and reliability to predict continuity to have the confidence not to be afraid of revolutions Taking the time to think of the future is more essential now than ever, as culture accelerates beyond its ability to be measured Probable things are vastly outnumbered by countless near-impossible eventualities. Reality is statistically forced to be extraordinary; fiction is not allowed this freedom This is a potent book that combines the chronicling of fantastic technology with equally visionary philosophical inquiry.

Sustainability and the Art of Long-Term Thinking

Author: Bernd Klauer,Reiner Manstetten,Thomas Petersen,Johannes Schiller

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1134986254

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 262

View: 1242

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Dealing with time is intimately linked to sustainability, because sustainability, at its core, involves long-term ethical claims. To live up to them, decision and policy-making has to consider long-term development of society, economy, and nature. However, dealing with time and such long-term development is a notoriously difficult subject, both in science and, in particular, in practical decision and policy making. Rooted in philosophical and scientific reasoning, this book explores how the concept of time can be incorporated into effective practical action. The book describes a system and uses case studies to help sustainability practitioners and researchers consider the long-term consequences of our actions in a methodical way. The system integrates scientific and practical knowledge about time and temporal developments to help break down the sometimes overwhelming complexity of sustainability issues. Combining theoretical conceptual thinking and practical applications, this book will be of great interest to students and researchers of sustainability science, environmental sciences, sustainable development, environmental economics, political sciences and practical philosophy.

The Money Game

Author: Adam Smith

Publisher: Open Road Media

ISBN: 1497652715

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 253

View: 9249

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“The best book there is about the stock market”—timeless investing basics by the host of the Emmy Award–winning show Adam Smith’s Money World (The New York Times Book Review). This essential book takes readers to the Street to learn about the intricacies of money and how the stock market impacts every area of our lives. According to the author, the key to making wise, lucrative investments is knowing ourselves. In witty, easily accessible language, he shares pithy insights about the role of intuition and the psychology of guilt, arguing that there is no substitute for information. Smith’s Irregular Rules shatter common myths and misconceptions, revealing why nothing works all the time and illustrating how greed and fear fuel the market. Readers will learn about the safest types of investing, the key to following market trends, and how to capitalize growth, gleaning tips on stock movers, winners and losers, and much more. Peppered with entertaining and prescient anecdotes, The Money Game analyzes who makes the really big money and explores the meaning of our desire to become rich. From selling short and buying long to Wall Street’s crowd mentality, from what constitutes a random walk to why timing is everything, this is the definitive portrait of the Street, then and now.

Creating Futures

Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool

Author: Michel Godet,Adam Gerber

Publisher: Economica Limited

ISBN: 9782717852448

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 349

View: 4204

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Whatever happens tomorrow depends less on prevailing trends and more on individual and collective decisions taken in the face of these trends. If the future is indeed the fruit of human desire, then we have the power to change it to organizational or personal advantage. In Creating Futures, Michel Godet has collected an impressive arsenal of the most effective methodologies for strategic planning. Godet maintains that with the right tools and attitudes, people can learn how to create futures. The book presents these planning methods with lively examples and illustrative and informative case studies. These include information technology in Europe, AXA Insurance, EDF (the French electrical utility), individual combat weapon (French military), and BASF and the agri-business environmental challenge.Creating Futures provides the tools managers, planners, and entrepreneurs need to anticipate change; avoid forecasting errors; avoid clichés and conventional thinking; and make sense of the concepts used in foresight, scenario building and strategic planning.

Making It All Work

Winning at the Game of Work and the Business of Life

Author: David Allen

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 1440655405

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 320

View: 5049

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The companion to the blockbuster bestseller, Getting Things Done. Since its publication in 2001, Getting Things Done has become, as Time magazine put it, "the defining self-help business book" of the decade. Having inspired millions of readers around the world, it clearly spoke to an urgent need in an increasingly time-pressured society. Now, in the highly anticipated sequel Making It All Work, Allen unlocks the full power of his methods across the entire span of life and work. While Getting Things Done functioned as an essential tool kit, Making It All Work is an invaluable road map, providing both bearings to help you determine where you are in life and directions on how to get to where you want to go. From the Trade Paperback edition.

The Art of Conjecture

Author: Bertrand de Jouvenel

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1351305662

Category: Political Science

Page: 325

View: 4681

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Commissions of experts regularly meet to reply to questions such as: What will be the population of the country, or even of our planet, in ten, fifteen or twenty-five years? In what proportion will production have increased, what modifications will its composition and utilizations have undergone? The attraction of efforts to forecast the future continues. That is a fact. How does it proceed? That is a problem, one on which de Jouvenel focuses on in this book. The Art of Conjecture clearly explains what the "study of the future" can mean. De Jouvenel emphasizes the logical and political problems of forecasting and discusses methods in economics, sociology, and political science by which the future can be studied. More importantly, he discusses the fallacies to which the "study of the future" is peculiarly likely to give rise. The author argues that it is natural and necessary for the population to have visions of the future. Without this, he states, we would only be able to set one opinion of the future against another. If the origins and meanings of these predictions remained obscure, only the event could decide among the opinions. If any man can be said to have created the serious "study of the future" in our time, it is Bertrand de Jouvenel. Futuribles, a periodical he created, continues to represent a major turning point in contemporary social science. Jouvenel aimed to show how "the art of conjecture" could inform prudential judgment and allow citizens and statesmen to detect troubles before they arise.

The essence of scenarios

learning from the shell experience

Author: Roland Kupers,Angela Wilkinson

Publisher: Amsterdam University Press

ISBN: 9048522099

Category: Social Science

Page: 170

View: 7901

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In 1965, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a new approach to preparing for the future. This approach, called scenario planning, eschewed forecasting in favor of plausible alternative stories. By using stories, or scenarios, Shell aimed to avoid the false assumption that the future would look much like the presentan assumption that marred most corporate planning at the time. The Essence of Scenarios offers unmatched insight into the companys innovative practice, which still has a huge influence on the way businesses, governments, and other organizations think about and plan for the future. In the course of their research, Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers interviewed almost every living veteran of the Shell scenario planning operation, along with many top Shell executives from later periods. Drawing on these interviews, the authors identify several principles that characterize the Shell process and explain how it has survived and thrived for so long. They also enumerate the qualities of successful Shell scenarios, which above all must be plausible stories with logical trajectories. Ultimately, Wilkinson and Kupers demonstrate the value of scenario planning as a sustained practice, rather than as a one-off exercise.

Blacks and Blackness in European Art of the Long Nineteenth Century

Author: AdrienneL. Childs

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1351573497

Category: Art

Page: 264

View: 8676

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Compelling and troubling, colorful and dark, black figures served as the quintessential image of difference in nineteenth-century European art; the essays in this volume further the investigation of constructions of blackness during this period. This collection marks a phase in the scholarship on images of blacks that moves beyond undifferentiated binaries like ?negative? and ?positive? that fail to reveal complexities, contradictions, and ambiguities. Essays that cover the late eighteenth through the early twentieth century explore the visuality of blackness in anti-slavery imagery, black women in Orientalist art, race and beauty in fin-de-si?e photography, the French brand of blackface minstrelsy, and a set of little-known images of an African model by Edvard Munch. In spite of the difficulty of resurrecting black lives in nineteenth-century Europe, one essay chronicles the rare instance of an American artist of color in mid-nineteenth-century Europe. With analyses of works ranging from G?cault's Raft of the Medusa, to portraits of the American actor Ira Aldridge, this volume provides new interpretations of nineteenth-century representations of blacks.