Forecast Verification

A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

Author: Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119961076

Category: Science

Page: 288

View: 9429

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Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).

Forecast Verification

A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

Author: Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0470864419

Category: Science

Page: 254

View: 7236

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This handy reference introduces the subject of forecast verification and provides a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand), then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most important topics in the field that are the subject of current research or that would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life case studies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the different techniques and an examination of their strengths and weaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leading forecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and its interpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical and mathematical definition of commonly used terms

Forecast Verification

A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

Author: Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson

Publisher: Wiley

ISBN: 9780471497592

Category: Science

Page: 254

View: 8914

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This handy reference introduces the subject of forecast verification and provides a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand), then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most important topics in the field that are the subject of current research or that would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life case studies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the different techniques and an examination of their strengths and weaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leading forecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and its interpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical and mathematical definition of commonly used terms

An Introduction to Environmental Chemistry

Author: Julian E. Andrews,Peter Brimblecombe,Tim D. Jickells,Peter S. Liss,Brian Reid

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118685474

Category: Science

Page: 320

View: 8959

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This introductory text explains the fundamentals of the chemistry of the natural environment and the effects of mankind's activities on the earth's chemical systems. Retains an emphasis on describing how natural geochemical processes operate over a variety of scales in time and space, and how the effects of human perturbation can be measured. Topics range from familiar global issues such as atmospheric pollution and its effect on global warming and ozone destruction, to microbiological processes that cause pollution of drinking water deltas. Contains sections and information boxes that explain the basic chemistry underpinning the subject covered. Each chapter contains a list of further reading on the subject area. Updated case studies. No prior chemistry knowledge required. Suitable for introductory level courses.

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Author: Stéphane Vannitsem,Daniel S. Wilks,Jakob Messner

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 012812248X

Category: Science

Page: 362

View: 7000

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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Parameterization Schemes

Keys to Understanding Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Author: David J. Stensrud

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107469651

Category: Science

Page: 478

View: 9846

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Numerical weather prediction models play an increasingly important role in meteorology, both in short- and medium-range forecasting and global climate change studies. The most important components of any numerical weather prediction model are the subgrid-scale parameterization schemes, and the analysis and understanding of these schemes is a key aspect of numerical weather prediction. This book provides in-depth explorations of the most commonly used types of parameterization schemes that influence both short-range weather forecasts and global climate models. Several parameterizations are summarised and compared, followed by a discussion of their limitations. Review questions at the end of each chapter enable readers to monitor their understanding of the topics covered, and solutions are available to instructors at www.cambridge.org/9780521865401. This will be an essential reference for academic researchers, meteorologists, weather forecasters, and graduate students interested in numerical weather prediction and its use in weather forecasting.

Atmospheric Science

An Introductory Survey

Author: John M. Wallace,Peter V. Hobbs

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 9780080499536

Category: Science

Page: 504

View: 5249

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Atmospheric Science, Second Edition, is the long-awaited update of the classic atmospheric science text, which helped define the field nearly 30 years ago and has served as the cornerstone for most university curricula. Now students and professionals alike can use this updated classic to understand atmospheric phenomena in the context of the latest discoveries, and prepare themselves for more advanced study and real-life problem solving. This latest edition of Atmospheric Science, has been revamped in terms of content and appearance. It contains new chapters on atmospheric chemistry, the Earth system, the atmospheric boundary layer, and climate, as well as enhanced treatment of atmospheric dynamics, radiative transfer, severe storms, and global warming. The authors illustrate concepts with full-color, state-of-the-art imagery and cover a vast amount of new information in the field. Extensive numerical and qualitative exercises help students apply basic physical principles to atmospheric problems. There are also biographical footnotes summarizing the work of key scientists, along with a student companion website that hosts climate data; answers to quantitative exercises; full solutions to selected exercises; skew-T log p chart; related links, appendices; and more. The instructor website features: instructor’s guide; solutions to quantitative exercises; electronic figures from the book; plus supplementary images for use in classroom presentations. Meteorology students at both advanced undergraduate and graduate levels will find this book extremely useful. Full-color satellite imagery and cloud photographs illustrate principles throughout Extensive numerical and qualitative exercises emphasize the application of basic physical principles to problems in the atmospheric sciences Biographical footnotes summarize the lives and work of scientists mentioned in the text, and provide students with a sense of the long history of meteorology Companion website encourages more advanced exploration of text topics: supplementary information, images, and bonus exercises

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

Author: Daniel S. Wilks

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 0123850231

Category: Science

Page: 704

View: 9797

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Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Third Edition, explains the latest statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. This revised and expanded text is intended to help students understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, or to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines. In this new edition, what was a single chapter on multivariate statistics has been expanded to a full six chapters on this important topic. Other chapters have also been revised and cover exploratory data analysis, probability distributions, hypothesis testing, statistical weather forecasting, forecast verification, and time series analysis. There is now an expanded treatment of resampling tests and key analysis techniques, an updated discussion on ensemble forecasting, and a detailed chapter on forecast verification. In addition, the book includes new sections on maximum likelihood and on statistical simulation and contains current references to original research. Students will benefit from pedagogical features including worked examples, end-of-chapter exercises with separate solutions, and numerous illustrations and equations. This book will be of interest to researchers and students in the atmospheric sciences, including meteorology, climatology, and other geophysical disciplines. Accessible presentation and explanation of techniques for atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing and forecasting Many worked examples End-of-chapter exercises, with answers provided

Mesoscale Meteorology in Midlatitudes

Author: Paul Markowski,Yvette Richardson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119966671

Category: Science

Page: 430

View: 6907

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Mesoscale Meteorology in Mid-Latitudes presents the dynamics of mesoscale meteorological phenomena in a highly accessible, student-friendly manner. The book's clear mathematical treatments are complemented by high-quality photographs and illustrations. Comprehensive coverage of subjects including boundary layer mesoscale phenomena, orographic phenomena and deep convection is brought together with the latest developments in the field to provide an invaluable resource for mesoscale meteorology students. Mesoscale Meteorology in Mid-Latitudes functions as a comprehensive, easy-to-use undergraduate textbook while also providing a useful reference for graduate students, research scientists and weather industry professionals. Illustrated in full colour throughout Covers the latest developments and research in the field Comprehensive coverage of deep convection and its initiation Uses real life examples of phenomena taken from broad geographical areas to demonstrate the practical aspects of the science

Warnings

The True Story of how Science Tamed the Weather

Author: Michael Ray Smith

Publisher: Greenleaf Book Group

ISBN: 1608320340

Category: Nature

Page: 286

View: 8942

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From the heart of tornado alley, Smith takes us into the eye of America's most devastating storms and behind the scenes of some of the world's most renowned scientific institutions to uncover the relationship between mankind and the weather.

Atmospheric Radar

Application and Science of MST Radars in the Earth's Mesosphere, Stratosphere, Troposphere, and Weakly Ionized Regions

Author: Wayne K. Hocking,Jürgen Röttger,Robert D. Palmer,Toru Sato,Phillip B. Chilson

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107147468

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 832

View: 3352

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The first book to bring together the theory, design and applications of atmospheric radar systems.

Ten Steps to a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System

A Handbook for Development Practitioners

Author: Jody Zall Kusek,Ray C. Rist

Publisher: World Bank Publications

ISBN: 0821389076

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 264

View: 2995

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This Handbook provides a comprehensive ten-step model that will help guide development practitioners through the process of designing and building a results-based monitoring and evaluation system.

Fire Phenomena and the Earth System

An Interdisciplinary Guide to Fire Science

Author: Claire M. Belcher

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118529561

Category: Science

Page: 352

View: 9549

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Fire plays a key role in Earth system processes. Wildfires influence the carbon cycle and the nutrient balance of our planet, and may even play a role in regulating the oxygen content of our atmosphere. The evolutionary history of plants has been intimately tied to fire and this in part explains the distribution of our ecosystems and their ability to withstand the effects of natural fires today. Fire Phenomena and the Earth System brings together the various subdisciplines within fire science to provide a synthesis of our understanding of the role of wildfire in the Earth system. The book shows how knowledge of fire phenomena and the nature of combustion of natural fuels can be used to understand modern wildfires, interpret fire events in the geological record and to understand the role of fire in a variety of Earth system processes. By bringing together chapters written by leading international researchers from a range of geological, environmental, chemical and engineering disciplines, the book will stimulate the exchange of ideas and knowledge across these subject areas. Fire Phenomena and the Earth System provides a truly interdisciplinary guide that can inform us about Earth’s past, present and beyond. Readership: Advanced students and researchers across a wide range of earth, environmental and life sciences, including biogeochemistry, paleoclimatology, atmospheric science, palaeontology and paleoecology, combustion science, ecology and forestry.

Principles of Business Forecasting

Author: Keith Ord,Robert Fildes

Publisher: Cengage Learning

ISBN: 0324311273

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 528

View: 6817

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Ord/Fildes PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING, 1E serves as both a textbook for students and as a reference book for experienced forecasters in a variety of fields. The authors’ motivation for writing this book is to give users the tools and insight to make the most effective forecasts drawing on the latest research ideas. Ord and Fildes have designed PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING for users who have taken a first course in applied statistics or who have an equivalent background. This book introduces both standard and advanced forecasting methods and their underlying models, and also includes general principles to guide and simplify forecasting practice. A key strength of the book is its emphasis on real data sets, taken from government and business sources and used in each chapter’s examples. Forecasting techniques are demonstrated using a variety of software platforms and the companion website provides easy-to-use Excel macros to support the basic methods. After the introductory chapters, the focus shifts to using extrapolative methods (exponential smoothing and ARIMA) and then to statistical model-building using multiple regression. The authors also cover more novel techniques including data mining and judgmental methods, which are gaining increasing attention in applications. Finally, they examine organizational issues of implementation and the development of a forecasting support system within an organization. Important Notice: Media content referenced within the product description or the product text may not be available in the ebook version.

The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

50th Anniversary Edition

Author: Thomas S. Kuhn

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 0226458148

Category: Science

Page: 264

View: 9266

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A good book may have the power to change the way we see the world, but a great book actually becomes part of our daily consciousness, pervading our thinking to the point that we take it for granted, and we forget how provocative and challenging its ideas once were—and still are. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions is that kind of book. When it was first published in 1962, it was a landmark event in the history and philosophy of science. Fifty years later, it still has many lessons to teach. With The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Kuhn challenged long-standing linear notions of scientific progress, arguing that transformative ideas don’t arise from the day-to-day, gradual process of experimentation and data accumulation but that the revolutions in science, those breakthrough moments that disrupt accepted thinking and offer unanticipated ideas, occur outside of “normal science,” as he called it. Though Kuhn was writing when physics ruled the sciences, his ideas on how scientific revolutions bring order to the anomalies that amass over time in research experiments are still instructive in our biotech age. This new edition of Kuhn’s essential work in the history of science includes an insightful introduction by Ian Hacking, which clarifies terms popularized by Kuhn, including paradigm and incommensurability, and applies Kuhn’s ideas to the science of today. Usefully keyed to the separate sections of the book, Hacking’s introduction provides important background information as well as a contemporary context. Newly designed, with an expanded index, this edition will be eagerly welcomed by the next generation of readers seeking to understand the history of our perspectives on science.

Data Analysis Methods in Physical Oceanography

Author: William J. Emery,Richard E. Thomson

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 9780444507563

Category: Science

Page: 638

View: 5053

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This is a practical reference guide to established and modern data analysis techniques in earth and ocean sciences. This second and revised edition has an additional appendix on Convolution and Fourier transforms. Intended for both students and established scientists, the five major chapters of the book cover data acquisition and recording, data processing and presentation, statistical methods and error handling, analysis of spatial data fields, and time series analysis methods. Chapter 5, on time series analysis, spans a wide diversity of topics - from stochastic processes and stationarity, coherence functions, Fourier analysis, tidal harmonic analysis, spectral and cross-spectral analysis, wavelet and other related methods for processing nonstationary data series, digital filters, and fractals. The seven appendices include unit conversions, approximation methods and nondimensional numbers used in geophysical fluid dynamics, presentations on convolution, statistical terminology, and distribution functions, and a number of important statistical tables.

An Introduction to Medical Statistics

Author: Martin Bland

Publisher: OUP Oxford

ISBN: 0191002992

Category: Medical

Page: 464

View: 1047

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Now in its Fourth Edition, An Introduction to Medical Statistics continues to be a 'must-have' textbook for anyone who needs a clear logical guide to the subject. Written in an easy-to-understand style and packed with real life examples, the text clearly explains the statistical principles used in the medical literature. Taking readers through the common statistical methods seen in published research and guidelines, the text focuses on how to interpret and analyse statistics for clinical practice. Using extracts from real studies, the author illustrates how data can be employed correctly and incorrectly in medical research helping readers to evaluate the statistics they encounter and appropriately implement findings in clinical practice. End of chapter exercises, case studies and multiple choice questions help readers to apply their learning and develop their own interpretative skills. This thoroughly revised edition includes new chapters on meta-analysis, missing data, and survival analysis.

Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction

Author: Thomas Tomkins Warner

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1139494317

Category: Science

Page: N.A

View: 5616

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This textbook provides a comprehensive yet accessible treatment of weather and climate prediction, for graduate students, researchers and professionals. It teaches the strengths, weaknesses and best practices for the use of atmospheric models. It is ideal for the many scientists who use such models across a wide variety of applications. The book describes the different numerical methods, data assimilation, ensemble methods, predictability, land-surface modeling, climate modeling and downscaling, computational fluid-dynamics models, experimental designs in model-based research, verification methods, operational prediction, and special applications such as air-quality modeling and flood prediction. This volume will satisfy everyone who needs to know about atmospheric modeling for use in research or operations. It is ideal both as a textbook for a course on weather and climate prediction and as a reference text for researchers and professionals from a range of backgrounds: atmospheric science, meteorology, climatology, environmental science, geography, and geophysical fluid mechanics/dynamics.

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

An Introduction

Author: Daniel S. Wilks

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 9780080541723

Category: Mathematics

Page: 467

View: 6219

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This book introduces and explains the statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. It will be useful to students, scientists, and other professionals who seek to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, or other geophysical disciplines, or to understand and communicate what their atmospheric data sets have to say. The book includes chapters on exploratory data analysis, probability distributions, hypothesis testing, statistical weather forecasting, forecast verification, time(series analysis, and multivariate data analysis. Worked examples, exercises, and illustrations facilitate understanding of the material; an extensive and up-to-date list of references allows the reader to pursue selected topics in greater depth. Key Features * Presents and explains techniques used in atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing, and forecasting * Includes extensive and up-to-date references * Features numerous worked examples and exercises * Contains over 130 illustrations

Fundamentals of Environmental and Toxicological Chemistry

Sustainable Science, Fourth Edition

Author: Stanley E. Manahan

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1466553162

Category: Science

Page: 614

View: 6444

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Fundamentals of Environmental and Toxicological Chemistry: Sustainable Science, Fourth Edition covers university-level environmental chemistry, with toxicological chemistry integrated throughout the book. This new edition of a bestseller provides an updated text with an increased emphasis on sustainability and green chemistry. It is organized based on the five spheres of Earth’s environment: (1) the hydrosphere (water), (2) the atmosphere (air), (3) the geosphere (solid Earth), (4) the biosphere (life), and (5) the anthrosphere (the part of the environment made and used by humans). The first chapter defines environmental chemistry and each of the five environmental spheres. The second chapter presents the basics of toxicological chemistry and its relationship to environmental chemistry. Subsequent chapters are grouped by sphere, beginning with the hydrosphere and its environmental chemistry, water pollution, sustainability, and water as nature’s most renewable resource. Chapters then describe the atmosphere, its structure and importance for protecting life on Earth, air pollutants, and the sustainability of atmospheric quality. The author explains the nature of the geosphere and discusses soil for growing food as well as geosphere sustainability. He also describes the biosphere and its sustainability. The final sphere described is the anthrosphere. The text explains human influence on the environment, including climate, pollution in and by the anthrosphere, and means of sustaining this sphere. It also discusses renewable, nonpolluting energy and introduces workplace monitoring. For readers needing additional basic chemistry background, the book includes two chapters on general chemistry and organic chemistry. This updated edition includes three new chapters, new examples and figures, and many new homework problems.